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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

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Saturday, February 22, 2025

SPC Feb 22, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper
Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few
storms could produce at least small hail.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
High pressure will remain situated over much of the central and
eastern states, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft. Within the
southern stream, a shortwave trough will move into the southern
Plains late, with cooling aloft spreading into TX and toward the
Sabine Valley into Sunday morning.

While the surface air mass will remain cool and stable, elevated
instability will develop ahead of this feature, aided by southerly
850 mb winds over 30 kt. Precipitation including thunderstorms
should develop over eastern TX during the afternoon and evening, and
spread eastward across LA overnight.

MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will develop over eastern TX from
evening into the overnight, with increasing deep-layer shear through
the cloud-bearing layer. Model forecast soundings vary with degree
of instability, lapse rate and shear combinations, but cool
sub-cloud layers will favor minimal melting of any hail that does
develop. At this time it appears most hail will be below severe
limits, with sporadic strong cores within the larger precipitation
shield.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/22/2025


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