Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
tonight.
...01Z Update...
...Florida...
Pre-frontal thunderstorm development over the eastern/southeastern
Gulf has diminished with the passage of an apparent supporting
mid-level short wave trough, which is now in the process of
progressing east of the south Atlantic coast. As surface
cyclogenesis commences and proceeds offshore of southern Mid
Atlantic coastal areas later this evening and overnight, the
trailing surface cold front may advance into the southern peninsula
of Florida by 12Z Thursday. However, lingering warm/dry layers
aloft across this region will tend to minimize the risk for new
thunderstorm development.
...Great Basin...
Beneath the mid-level cold pool of a vigorous short wave impulse
progressing into portions of the Great Basin, destabilization aided
by daytime heating has been sufficient to support weak convective
development across portions of north central Nevada. While
thermodynamic profiles have become supportive of some lightning
during the past few hours, potential for additional convection
capable of producing lightning is expected to become increasingly
negligible with diurnal boundary-layer cooling.
..Kerr.. 02/20/2025
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