Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX
AND SOUTH LA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight.
Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and localized
severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast.
...Southeast TX and south LA...
Overall forecast scenario appears to be evolving as anticipated.
Elevated convection over southeast TX/southwest LA will have the
best chance at producing marginally severe hail along the eastern
periphery of steeper mid-level lapse rates, sampled upstream by the
00Z FWD sounding. An increasingly predominant cluster convective
mode is anticipated with time tonight, limiting the hail threat amid
weaker lapse rates with eastern extent across LA. Guidance continues
a slightly southward trend to placement of the warm front overnight
near the LA coast as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs in the
northwest Gulf. With ongoing convection curtailing northward
displacement of the stable surface air mass inland, these trends
suggest the wind/tornado threats should remain spatially confined
along the immediate coast near the MS River Delta.
..Grams.. 02/19/2025
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