Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through
midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated
damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into
parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon.
...FL/GA...
An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central
Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by
12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the
northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But
the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level
shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest
portion of the line will persist before moving off the South
Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during
the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the
southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should
diminish after late morning.
...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic...
The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be
elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and
parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually
impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across
the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme
low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning
convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief
tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains
too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time.
In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does
suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from
north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for
ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave
trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may
develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level
flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The
level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for
this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a
thunderstorm wind threat may begin.
..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025
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