Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of
California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary
threats.
...Southeast...
A large-scale upper trough will shift east from the MS Valley into
the Great Lakes and the central Appalachians during the day and
become increasingly displaced from the northeast Gulf Coast.
Likewise, a surface low initially near Lakes Erie/Ontario will
develop northeast into the St. Lawrence Valley as a trailing cold
front pushes southeast through the northeast Gulf Coast/Southeast
U.S. A band of showers/thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start
of the period from the FL Panhandle north-northeastward into
south-central GA and SC. The severe risk will likely focus during
the morning as the environment will support enlarged hodographs
within a moist/weakly unstable warm sector (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE)
ahead of the cold front. Storm intensity will likely diminish
considerably during the afternoon as the southern periphery of an
850-mb speed max shifts northeast. A few stronger storms embedded
within the band may be associated with a threat for damaging gusts
and perhaps a tornado before this threat wanes.
...Central Valley of California...
A powerful mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will move
inland during the day and reach the Great Basin tonight. Initial
shower activity associated with strong low-level warm-air advection
will move east/south by the early to mid afternoon. A period of
weak destabilization is expected by the mid-late afternoon due in
part to strong mid-level cold-air advection (500-mb temperatures
cooling into the -22 to -25 deg C range). As a result, the
steepening of lapse rates may yield upwards of 250 J/kg SBCAPE.
Low-topped convection is currently progged in the latest
convection-allowing model guidance in the central valley. Forecast
soundings show relatively moist/near-saturated low levels coincident
with strengthening and veering flow with height in the lowest 3 km.
A couple of stronger updrafts may exhibit transient rotation and
potentially yield a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the
late afternoon.
..Smith/Weinman.. 02/13/2025
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