Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...01z Update...
850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into
southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream
short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model
guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours
then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of
low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into the
Ozarks. This appears to be the primary reason for ongoing elevated
convection, with scattered updrafts penetrating levels that are
favorable for lightning. 00z sounding from OUN supports this with
450 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 2km AGL. With time, as
temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates should adjust and permit
convection to develop southwest across north-central TX into the
Edwards Plateau. Buoyancy appears inadequate for severe hail.
..Darrow.. 02/11/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/THvWZ7
