Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across
southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight.
...TX/OK/AR...
Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject
northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period.
Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US
ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in
response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests
a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards
Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the
primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do
not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period
as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep
convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much
weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this
is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely
after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as
profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for
lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max
translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak
MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025
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