Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United
States through tonight.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the removal of the Marginal
risk area over the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. Recent
radar, satellite, and lightning trends all indicate weakening
thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front, owing to very
marginal lapse rates/instability and limited deeper-layer forcing
for ascent. While strong background flow and earlier heating could
still support locally strong gusts with showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon, the potential for organized severe storms
appears low. For details on any remaining low-end/isolated risk for
strong convective gusts, reference MCD #61.
..Weinman.. 01/31/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/
...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle...
A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS
Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping
eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the
front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the
northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and
lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in
MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly
greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central
FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows
broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the
MRGL risk.
Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the
Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in
the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be
along, and more likely behind, the front.
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