Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Valid 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this
afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast.
...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower
MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve
into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong
southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the
larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In
the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through
western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley.
This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level
flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the
FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the
12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to
isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates
and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit
storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can
develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across
southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite
uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in
convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending
lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given
the aforementioned uncertainty.
Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central
GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense
flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a
neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in
a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe
probabilities.
..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025
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