Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm activity through late afternoon/early evening has been
focused across western AZ under an upper low where very cold
temperatures aloft, combined with modest low-level warming, has
supported sufficient buoyancy for lightning production. This
environment was sampled well by the 00 UTC FGZ sounding; however,
buoyancy is expected to quickly diminish as surface temperatures
rapidly cool with the loss of daytime heating. Falling LightningCast
probability values over the past 30-60 minutes suggest this trend is
already underway. While a flash or two appears possible during the
01-02 UTC time frame, lightning potential through the remainder of
the overnight hours appears sufficiently low to remove thunder
probabilities.
..Moore.. 01/28/2025
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