Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this
afternoon into early evening, and pose at least some risk for a
tornado and locally damaging wind gusts.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track as a line of thunderstorms
continues to migrate south/southeast across the FL Peninsula. The
30-40 mph eastward motion of individual convective elements within
the line is limiting residence time within the warmer/more buoyant
air mass over land and favoring maximum convective intensity along
Florida's east coast. Several severe wind gusts and a few 1-inch
hail stones have been reported in the past couple of hours, and
consideration was given for introducing 5% hail risk probabilities.
However, the linear organization of the convection should limit the
potential for additional supercells, and a general weakening trend
is anticipated through early evening as the line continues
south/southeast. It remains somewhat unclear exactly when the severe
wind threat will fully diminish, especially given recent KMLB VWP
observations showing 40-50 knot winds within the 2-3 km layer ahead
of the convective line. To account for this uncertainty, the
Marginal risk was expanded slightly southward ahead of the line, but
convection should be sufficiently weak later this evening as it
moves into south FL to preclude risk probabilities.
..Moore.. 01/19/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/
...FL Peninsula...
Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this
morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base
of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across
the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over
central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through
southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this
front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the
vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and
thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the
day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually
southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e.
effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon,
supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of
damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind
fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical
shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely
maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL
Peninsula.
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