Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe
gusts, hail and possibly a brief tornado, are expected to develop
today from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
A negative-tilted mid-level trough will move eastward into the
central Appalachian Mountains today, as a 90 to 100 knot mid-level
jet moves through the northern Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a
low will move through the Ohio Valley, as a warm front advances
northward into the Mid-Atlantic. This afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop near a cold pocket aloft
associated with the mid-level low. In addition, a line of
thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the central Appalachians,
where lift will be enhanced by the left exit region of the mid-level
jet. RAP forecast soundings across the central Appalachians by early
afternoon have MUCAPE in the 300 to 500 J/kg range, and steepen
low-level lapse rates to around 7 C/km. This should be enough for
isolated severe gusts along the leading edge of the strongly-forced
the line. In addition, afternoon forecast soundings in the
Mid-Atlantic have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350
m2/s2 range suggesting that a marginal tornado threat will also be
possible. Hail could also occur with cells embedded in the more
organized parts of the line. The severe threat is expected to
continue into the late afternoon, as the line of storms moves
through the Mid-Atlantic region.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/31/2024
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