Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the rest of the period.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic.
...20z...
The severe risk has diminished across middle and eastern Tennessee
as of 20z, prompting the removal of the remaining Marginal risk
area. Thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southeast and
into the Mid-Atlantic along the front this afternoon. See previous
discussion for more information.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 12/18/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024/
...Middle/Eastern Tennessee and Vicinity...
A line of convection along/near a cold front will continue to
progress steadily eastward across parts of eastern KY,
middle/eastern TN and northern AL. This activity is generally
outpacing greater low-level moisture to its south, and related
instability. Isolated strong to damaging winds still appear possible
for a couple more hours while the line can maintain its intensity,
even though boundary-layer instability and lapse rates aloft remain
rather weak. But, expectations are for the line to weaken quickly by
early/mid afternoon as it encounters the higher terrain of the
Appalachians and an even less favorable thermodynamic environment.
...Remainder of Southeast into the Southern Mid-Atlantic...
Continued low-level warm/moist advection will occur today ahead of
an eastward-moving upper trough and related surface cold front.
While a conditionally somewhat favorable environment to support
organized severe convection should exist across parts of the
Southeast into the Carolinas ahead of the front, limited low-level
convergence and poor lapse rates/instability should tend to hinder
thunderstorm development for most areas. Convection does appear more
probable across parts of central/south FL this afternoon and
evening, but weak shear should limit severe potential.
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