Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST TX
TO SOUTHERN AR...
...SUMMARY...
Small to marginally severe hail will remain possible into late
evening across a portion of northeast Texas into southern Arkansas.
...Northeast TX to southern AR...
A swath of scattered convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the
southeast side of the Metroplex, along a slow-moving cold front. 00Z
SHV sounding sampled MLCAPE near 800 J/kg with moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km and modest effective bulk shear
of 25-30 kts. MRMS MESH signatures of 0.5-1.0 hail have been noted
over the past few hours within weakly rotating updrafts. This trend
may persist for another couple hours before the effects of gradual
boundary-layer cooling mitigate stronger storms. With negligible
large-scale ascent, beyond convergence along the front, convective
activity appears unlikely to greatly strengthen tonight.
..Grams.. 12/17/2024
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