Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist, with the most
important feature being a trough now apparent in moisture-channel
imagery from a low over southeastern MB, across western MN, eastern
NE, central KS, and the TX Panhandle. The main/northern part of
this trough is forecast to weaken and move across the Upper Great
Lakes today. A weaker, positively tilted, basal vorticity banner
will move eastward from the TX Panhandle across much of OK today,
and more slowly moving eastward over northwest TX. By 00Z, this
lobe should weaken and extend from the Ozarks to southern OK and the
Permian Basin, then become diffuse and perhaps dissipate overnight.
As that occurs, a surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from eastern
IA across southwestern MO, central/southwestern OK and northwest TX
-- should move eastward/southeastward by 00Z to near a TOL-EVV-DYR-
LIT-DAL-6R6 line. Overnight, the southern part of the front will
move slowly southeastward then become quasistationary, reaching a
position across northern parts of AL/MS/LA, northeast/north-central
TX and the Hill Country. Episodic, widely scattered thunderstorms
in bands and clusters are possible near the front, becoming isolated
to widely scattered in the warm sector.
A few strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon from the
Arklatex into the Mid-South, near time of peak diurnally driven
buoyancy. This activity will be within the warm-advection/moisture-
transport conveyor, and along/ahead of the surface cold front. A
narrow corridor of prefrontal MLCAPE should range from about 2000
J/kg in northeast TX, where heating and moisture will be greatest,
to around 1000 J/kg in eastern AR. However, during the surface
warming/destabilization peak window, surface flow will be veering
and remaining weak, due to the shift of the mid/upper trough and
related large-scale lift and mass response away from the area. This
will act both to shrink hodographs and weaken frontal convergence
with time. Given these offsetting factors, and the increasing
dominance of the unfavorable ones with time during the afternoon,
severe probabilities appear too low and conditional for an outlook
area at this time.
..Edwards/Goss.. 12/16/2024
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