Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks/ArkLaTex...
A compact shortwave trough will gradually shift east across the
central Great Plains tonight. While its associated surface
reflection in the Raton Mesa vicinity will remain weak as it
similarly tracks near the KS/OK border, low-level mass response will
strengthen this evening. This will yield an abrupt increase in
elevated convection overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates will
largely be confined from the Red River northward, where MUCAPE will
remain weak along the periphery of the modified moisture return. 60s
surface dew points will remain confined across parts of south into
central TX, where mid-level lapse rates will be more muted. Still,
with a relatively broad swath of greater than 50-kt 500-mb winds
from north TX into eastern KS and the Ozarks, small hail may occur
in the deepest updrafts.
...Northern CA...
An upper trough will approach the West Coast late tonight into early
morning. Associated low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead
of a weak surface front, with a broad area of precipitation. Gradual
cooling of mid-level temperatures will occur as the upper trough
approaches, which may support meager MUCAPE across parts of northern
CA during the 09-12Z period. Sporadic lightning flashes may occur
with low-topped convection along/near the front, with overall
thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent.
..Grams.. 12/14/2024
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