Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Central US...
Significant low-latitude energy currently extends across the
southwestern US, with a split-flow regime noted at 500mb.
Late-evening satellite imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave
trough ejecting northeast across northern Mexico, but a much
stronger feature approaching the Four Corners. This lead short wave
will encourage modified boundary-layer moisture to begin advancing
north across TX into the southern Plains early in the period. LLJ is
forecast to increase Friday night across eastern OK into the lower
MO Valley, as strong height falls spread into the central Plains.
Latest model guidance suggests gradual air mass destabilization will
occur within the warm-advection regime. Forecast soundings suggest
scattered convection should develop during the overnight hours when
elevated parcels become uninhibited by steepening lapse rates, and
weaker inhibition. Current thinking is this activity should prove
too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe hail.
...Northern California...
Short-wave ridging will dominate CA early in the period, then
substantial height falls will spread east ahead of a strong
short-wave trough. While this feature will not advance inland until
later in the day2 period, high-level diffluent flow will support
frontal convection. Although the majority of convection should be
focused along the boundary offshore, latest guidance suggests the
wind shift will approach the northern CA coast by 12z. Forecast
soundings exhibit weak, elevated MUCAPE ahead of the boundary, and
around 100 J/kg SBCAPE near the actual cold front as profiles cool.
A few flashes of lightning may be noted with the stronger updrafts.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 12/13/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TGlwhm
