Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
through tonight.
...Synopsis...
As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across
northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level
troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin
to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging
short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across
the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude
ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower
Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of
weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific
coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday.
In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front
stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that
cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while
continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the
Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the
Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of
Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within
southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization.
...Great Lakes...
High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may
maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the
region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization
generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and
Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and
lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the
potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears
negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight.
..Kerr.. 12/12/2024
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