Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts,
remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.
...01z Update...
Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the
TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a
bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is
forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and
this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into
southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest
large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk
area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated
band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western
AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest
concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast
TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of
concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main
instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a
concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging
winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be
diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually
spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches
the lower MO Valley.
..Darrow.. 11/05/2024
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