LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms remain possible
tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging
winds and large hail are expected.
...01z Update...
Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing east across the Four
Corners region early this evening. 90+kt 500mb speed max will rotate
into the base of this feature over northern Mexico late tonight and
into far West TX by sunrise. In response, LLJ is forecast to
increase markedly across the southern High Plains later this
evening, with the nose of the LLJ expected to focus into western OK
by the end of the period. 20-30kt southerly 1km winds are currently
noted at SJT/MAF/DYX, and higher PWs will begin to surge north over
the next few hours into the TX South Plains. Scattered convection
continues to trail southwest across the Big Country, but this
activity is not currently strongly forced. However, low-level
convergence should increase across northwest TX as the LLJ
increases, and scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely
develop late this evening into the early-morning hours as far
northwest as the eastern portions of LBB CWA. Forecast soundings
exhibit very steep 2-6km lapse rates, which contribute to MUCAPE
approaching 3000 J/kg within an environment that will become
increasingly sheared. Long hodographs appear favorable for very
large hail with this activity. Additionally, as upper 60s surface
dew points advance into southwest OK, surface-based parcels become
uninhibited and substantial SBCAPE will once again develop. In
addition to large hail, threat of tornadoes may increase very late
in the period as boundary layer recovers across this portion of the
Plains.
Otherwise, a larger complex of storms, that currently extends from
the Red River into eastern OK, will gradually advance east this
evening. Scattered supercells are embedded within this corridor,
especially along the leading edge. Wind fields continue to support
long-lived updrafts and all hazards remain possible, especially
wind/tornadoes. The primary risk for large hail will accompany the
late-night supercells ahead of the mid-level speed max.
..Darrow.. 11/04/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TFzsgr
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MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).
Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
CONVECTIVE | TORNADO | WIND | HAIL
O'Hare International Airport KORD
(Arlington Heights South)
Chicago Executive Airport KPWK
(Arlington Heights North)
Sunday, November 3, 2024
SPC Nov 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)