Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today and
tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive, nearly zonal mid/upper-level pattern will prevail
over most of the CONUS, ahead of a trough now over the Pacific
Northwest. This trough should move east-southeastward across ID and
the northern Great Basin through the period, maintaining positive
tilt. By 12Z tomorrow, the trough should extend from central WY
across central UT to southern NV, nearly phased with a northern-
stream perturbation over the Dakotas. A broad cyclone now located
over northwestern ON should shift/redevelop eastward over western
and southern QC by the end of the period.
At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an occluded low related to the
eastern cyclone, over ON near the eastern end of Georgian Bay. The
occluded/cold front extended across western NY, central PA,
southwestern VA, central AL, southeastern LA, across shelf waters of
the northwestern Gulf, to near BRO. By 00Z, the front should move
off all the Atlantic Coast poleward of MYR, and extend from there
across southern GA to near AAF, then over the west-central Gulf. A
narrow corridor of prefrontal surface dewpoints ranging from the mid
50s (northeast) to the mid 60s F (southwest) is expected. However,
the combination of weak frontal lift (as prefrontal flow veers/
lessens), and stability within the 650-800 mb layer, should preclude
associated areal thunderstorm potential.
..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/26/2024
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