Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected Today.
...Discussion...
An upper low initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to
shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region with time,
deepening through the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a
second low is forecast to remain off the Pacific Northwest Coast.
At the surface, an occluded low will shift across the Upper Great
Lakes in tandem with the upper cyclone, while a cold front crosses
the Appalachians through the first half of the period. Overnight,
the front will move off the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coast,
lingering only across southern portions of Florida by the end of the
period Thursday morning.
With a zone of strong onshore/upslope southwesterly flow across the
Pacific Northwest southeast of the offshore upper low, showers and
occasional lightning flashes will occur, with lightning potential
focused near the Coast Ranges.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will also be possible across the
Mid-Atlantic states south to North Carolina, ahead of the advancing
surface cold front. Given weak/slightly elevated instability
anticipated across this area, severe weather is not expected.
Finally, showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast across
portions of the Florida Peninsula, but with weak lapse rates and
modest flow aloft, severe storms are not anticipated.
..Goss/Wendt.. 11/20/2024
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