Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this
afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South
Plains into Oklahoma.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over
CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the
Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead
mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern
NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls
overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front
in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east
of morning showers/thunderstorms.
...Southern High Plains to portions of OK...
An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong
thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through
western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow
slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin.
Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains
northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence
in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe
threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e
advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of
convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual
destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the
convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation
of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over
parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later
this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have
opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite
some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud
cover, destabilization).
Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern
parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist
southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F
dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to
moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the
lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger
storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into
a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with
the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and
localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into
northwest TX.
..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024
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