Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this
afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and
vicinity.
...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted
mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving
northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early
Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line
may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the
early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall
line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east
TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime
heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger
forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon
across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk
for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty
remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential
supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion
of the outlook area unchanged.
...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the
zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast
KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level
dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift
northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak
surface-based destabilization.
In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains
possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late
afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly
spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved
regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part
to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it
seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may
develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a
tornado.
..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024
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