Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far
southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk
for hail and isolated severe gusts.
...Southern High Plains Into Far Southwest Kansas...
A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
southern Rockies, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from
northern Mexico northeastward across the southern Plains into the
mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of maximized
low-level moisture is located across west Texas, where surface
dewpoints are in the 55 to 60 F range. As low-level moisture
advection continues across the southern High Plains this evening, a
pocket of instability is expected to develop over the eastern Texas
Panhandle, where the RAP is forecasting MUCAPE to approach 1500 J/kg
by midnight. The instability, along with increasing large-scale
ascent, associated with the approaching mid-level trough, will
likely support isolated thunderstorm development near the
instability axis late this evening. Convective coverage is expected
to expand as cells move eastward across southern Kansas and western
Oklahoma during the early overnight period. Forecast soundings near
the instability axis at 06Z have an inversion from the surface to
850 mb suggesting that the storms will be elevated. Above the
inversion, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km,
with effective shear near 40 knots. This may be enough for rotating
cells capable of producing isolated large hail. A chance for
isolated severe gusts will also exist, but this will be a lesser
threat.
..Broyles.. 11/13/2024
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