Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity remains possible tonight
in a narrow corridor across the lower Mississippi into lower Ohio
Valleys.
...01Z Update...
Although probably hindered to some extent by the presence of
Tropical Storm Rafael over the central Gulf of Mexico, low-level
moistening is ongoing within a southerly return flow around the
western periphery of a prominent surface high slowly shifting
eastward across the Atlantic Seaboard. This will continue
overnight, as a mid-level cyclone emanating from the Southwest
continues a slow northeastward acceleration across and northeast of
the middle/lower Missouri Valley.
Within this regime, upper support has weakened for a slow moving
cluster of thunderstorms now overspreading central Louisiana into
southwestern Mississippi. However, even as this convection
diminishes, instability appears sufficient to maintain a risk for
additional thunderstorm activity, aided by persistent weak low-level
warm advection along/north of its stalling outflow boundary
overnight.
Farther north, weak conditional instability is probably maximized
within a narrow plume of higher precipitable water content advecting
across the lower Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys. Based on
various model output, it appears possible that large-scale forcing
for ascent, near the southern periphery of the leading edge of
stronger mid-level height falls associated with the mid-level low,
may contribute to a band of weak thunderstorm development overnight.
..Kerr.. 11/10/2024
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