Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and isolated
gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan
this evening and overnight.
...Parts of Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and northern Lower
Michigan...
A strong upper low, now crossing southeastern Manitoba per water
vapor imagery, will continue progressing steadily eastward -- into
southwestern Ontario -- through the period. An associated surface
cold front -- trailing from a low near the Manitoba/Ontario border
-- extends across western Lake Superior, northwestern Wisconsin, the
southeastern tip of Minnesota, and into eastern Iowa at this time,
and will move rapidly across the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest
through the overnight hours.
Within a zone of ample/elevated instability, thunderstorms have
developed over the past hour or so along the cold front -- from
western Lake Superior into northwestern Wisconsin. Very strong flow
aloft exists across this area, though generally unidirectional in
the cloud-bearing layer. Some increase in flow with height through
mid levels is yielding sufficient speed shear for organized storms,
and attendant risk for hail with the strongest updrafts. Though the
storms are elevated, the boundary layer is not strongly stable,
suggesting that gusty/locally damaging winds may also occur --
particularly if an organized cold pool can develop.
For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2130.
..Goss.. 10/06/2024
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