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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS WEATHER
O'Hare International Airport KORD (Arlington Heights South)
Chicago Executive Airport KPWK (Arlington Heights North)

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

SPC Oct 29, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development may begin late tonight from the Upper
Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains.
Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level
1/MRGL risk for the very end of the period.

...Plains...

Seasonally strong upper trough, currently located just inland of the
Pacific Coast, is forecast to shift across the Great Basin/lower CO
River Valley this morning as strongest 500mb flow rotates across AZ
into southern CO. This feature should advance into the Four Corners
region by 30/12z with a corridor of strong high-level southwesterly
winds expected to extend across NM into the upper Great Lakes. This
flow regime warrants a strengthening lee trough, along with a
plains-focused LLJ, through the end of the period. In response to
the approaching upper system, lee trough should sharpen and get
dislodged into southeastern NE-central KS-southern High Plains by
sunrise Tuesday. Prior to large-scale forcing/approaching cold
front, forecast soundings appear too capped/stable to warrant any
appreciable risk for robust convection. However, sustained southerly
low-level flow should result in a gradual increase in boundary-layer
moisture during the latter half of the period, as 60F dew points
could approach the KS border by 30/12z. If dew points are able to
rise to near 60F then surface parcels will be negligibly inhibited,
and SBCAPE would likely be adequate for robust updrafts, especially
as dynamic support is spreading across this boundary by sunrise.
Will maintain severe probabilities for very late in the period to
account for some risk of robust convection developing along the cold
front/dry line, primarily after 09z. Given the strength of the wind
field, organized thunderstorms are possible, and this activity could
generate wind/hail. Even so, greater risk appears to be later in the
day2 period.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/29/2024


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