Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN MO AND IA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong gusts
(50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern
Missouri and much of Iowa this evening into early tonight.
...Eastern KS/northern MO/IA this evening into tonight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over western WY this morning will
progress to the central Plains this evening and the mid MS Valley by
early Friday. Downstream from this midlevel trough, lee
cyclogenesis is expected across the central High Plains this
afternoon, which will aid in northward advection of a partially
modified Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F).
Strong surface heating/mixing across KS/OK will result in a narrow
surface warm sector with moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg)
by mid-late afternoon across eastern KS. The eastern extent of the
surface warm sector will be demarcated by a warm front into western
MO.
Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible by roughly
22-00z along a surface trough/cold front across eastern KS, with
subsequent expansion of elevated convection farther northeast across
northern MO/southern IA through early tonight in a zone of
strengthening low-level warm advection. Isolated strong outflow
gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible with the initial storms across
eastern KS this evening in the zone of steeper low-level lapse
rates. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and
sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support some potential for
embedded supercells capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75
inch diameter) into early tonight. The area from eastern KS to
northwest MO was considered for a SLGT risk upgrade, and this area
will be monitored closely in later outlook updates.
..Thompson/Goss.. 10/24/2024
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