Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm threat remains low through tonight.
...01z Update...
Strong positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley region. At the surface, a seasonally strong cold
front has advanced into central NY-western PA-southern OH. This flow
regime allowed a corridor of weak instability to develop ahead of
the front where low-level lapse rates steepened as temperatures
warmed through the upper 60s to near 70F. As a result, weak
convection developed along/ahead of the wind shift, and a few
updrafts penetrated levels necessary for lightning discharge. 00z
sounding from PIT supports this with SBCAPE on the order of 300 J/kg
and EL temperature near -30C. However, nocturnal cooling should lead
to weakening lapse rates and instability. While a few flashes may
linger for the next hour or so, most convection should remain too
shallow thereafter to produce significant lightning.
..Darrow.. 10/24/2024
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