Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
...Upper OH Valley into western NY this evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley this morning
will progress east-southeastward to NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic by
the end of the period. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough and an
associated surface cold front could support some shallow convective
showers late this afternoon/evening from northeast OH to western NY.
However, marginal low-level moisture and minimal buoyancy suggest
that thunderstorms are unlikely.
...Northern AR to central OK this afternoon...
Boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F and surface heating will drive
surface-based buoyancy this afternoon along a slow-moving front from
northern AR into central OK. Thermodynamic profiles suggest some
potential for deep convection, but forcing for ascent will remain
shallow/weak at best. Overall, thunderstorm potential appears too
limited for an outlook area.
..Thompson/Goss.. 10/23/2024
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