Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...Discussion...
Thunderstorms that occurred this afternoon near the TX Big Bend have
waned and will further diminish shortly with acceleration of
nocturnal cooling. Sporadic elevated thunderstorms associated with a
dampening shortwave impulse moving into Lower MI appear to have
finally ceased, with more rapid decaying of this impulse expected.
A broader, upstream shortwave trough will further amplify into the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This should strengthen forcing for ascent
along and to the rearward side of a surface cold front sweeping
east. Most models depict scant elevated buoyancy developing across
parts of the U.P. of MI into northern WI/Lower MI. This may be
adequate for very isolated thunderstorms as ascent strengthens later
tonight, which appears to be supported by 23Z HRRR/RRFS runs.
..Grams.. 10/23/2024
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