Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across parts
of central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid
afternoon to early evening.
...Central Plains through this evening...
A midlevel low over CO this morning will continue to evolve into an
open wave while progressing eastward over KS/NE today to IA/MO
overnight. Largely elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a
broken band from the TX Panhandle into western KS, in the zone of
ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Isolated, marginally severe
hail and gusty outflow winds will be possible this morning with
these storms, given MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates
near 7.5 C/km. In the wake of the morning convection, a narrow
corridor of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s)
and surface heating will precede the midlevel trough and an
associated lee surface trough from the eastern TX Panhandle into
western and central KS/NE.
A few thunderstorms will be possible along/immediately east of the
lee trough by mid-late afternoon this afternoon as convective
inhibition diminishes with at least weak ascent. Forecast profiles
suggest the potential for isolated supercells capable of producing
large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter), isolated strong outflow
gusts of 50-60 mph, and potentially a tornado or two. The severe
threat will peak late this afternoon before decreasing near/after
sunset as the low levels begin to stabilize and the zone of ascent
shifts east of the confined moist sector.
..Thompson/Goss.. 10/21/2024
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