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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS WEATHER

Friday, October 18, 2024

SPC Oct 18, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a threat for hail, damaging
gusts and a tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon and
evening from the southern Rockies eastward into the southern High
Plains.

...Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains...
An upper-level low will move southeastward across the Desert
Southwest today, as warm advection takes place ahead of the system
over the southern Plains. Low-level moisture will increase across
eastern New Mexico and west Texas as a low-level jet remains in
place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of
instability will develop across eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE is
forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the
instability axis at 00Z/Saturday have 0-6km shear in the 40 to 45
knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This
environment will support supercells with isolated large hail and a
few severe gusts. RAP forecast soundings in northeastern New Mexico
also have gradually veering winds with height below 700 mb and some
speed shear in the lowest 1 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
from 250 to 300 m2/s2. This may be enough for one or two tornadoes
with any discrete supercell that can persist into the early evening,
when the low-level jet will be stronger. An isolated severe threat
may also develop as a line of storms moves across parts of the
southern High Plains during the mid to late evening.

..Broyles/Moore.. 10/18/2024


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