Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today.
...Synopsis...
Weak flow aloft will prevail today over the southern half of the
U.S., while a belt of fast west-northwesterlies extends from the
northern Intermountain region to the Northeast. Within this fast
belt of flow, a short-wave trough moving quickly southeastward
across central Canada will brush the Great Lakes region.
Accompanying this feature, a surface cold front will move quickly
across the Upper Great Lakes through the first half of the period,
and then across the Lower Lakes and Northeast overnight. The
trailing portion of this front will become oriented roughly
west-to-east with time across the central Plains and Midwest,
through Saturday morning.
...Northern Lower Michigan...
Isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible across
the northern Lower Michigan vicinity near peak heating, along the
fast-moving cold front, where steep mid-level lapse rates should
contribute to modest CAPE. The deep-layer wind field -- increasing
in intensity and slightly veering with height -- would support
organized/severe storms in a more favorable thermodynamic
environment. However, given weak CAPE, and a dry -- and likely to
be slightly stable -- boundary layer, any gusty outflow winds should
remain very local, and likely to remain below severe levels.
Convection should weaken quickly through sunset.
..Goss/Halbert.. 10/11/2024
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