Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKE ERIE
ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO AND INTO SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible this afternoon from
Lake Erie across much of Ohio and into southeast Indiana and
northern Kentucky.
...Lower Great Lakes into the OH Valley...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving through the Upper Midwest and into the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valley. This shortwave trough is expected to continue
eastward/southeastward through OH Valley during the day, progressing
through the base of the parent upper trough over Ontario. Recent
surface analysis places the low associated with this wave over
southwestern Ontario. A cold front extends southwestward from this
low across the middle/lower OH Valley and the Ozark Plateau before
continuing through central and southwest OK.
Low-level airmass ahead of this front across much of the OH Valley
is characterized by mid 60s dewpoints. This low-level moisture is
forecast to advect northeastward into the Upper OH Valley in a
fairly narrow corridor ahead of the front throughout the day,
although boundary-layer mixing could drop dewpoints into the upper
50s by the afternoon. This low-level moisture will help support
modest buoyancy as the airmass diurnally warms, although the overall
buoyancy will be limited by both the boundary-layer mixing and
persistence of warm mid-level temperatures. There should still be
enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm development along the front
during the afternoon.
The stronger mid-level flow, and resultant stronger vertical shear,
will lag behind the front, while also having a more front-parallel
structure. This orientation, coupled with the modest buoyancy and
weak pre-frontal convergence, could result in quick undercutting of
any updrafts, leading to a more anafrontal character to the storms.
Even so, isolated thunderstorms may remain in the warm sector long
enough to produce a few damaging gusts. Isolated hail is possible as
well, even as storms become displaced behind the front. Activity
should weaken this evening as it moves eastward out of the most
favorable moisture, and into a nocturnally cooling/stabilizing
boundary layer.
...Elsewhere...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along the
front from Mid-South vicinity across AR into northwest TX. Weak
buoyancy and shear should mitigate storm intensity, keeping the
severe potential low. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated from
the Gulf Coast into FL, amid the tropical airmass in place. A few
water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible,
particularly across the FL Peninsula.
..Mosier/Dean.. 09/06/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TCwNtV
