Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for today.
...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will stretch from the lower MS Valley
into the Northeast today, with a weakening upper low over KY. To the
west, an upper ridge will extend from the Four Corners states into
the upper MS Valley during the day, and will tilt eastward across
the upper Great Lakes overnight as a strong upper trough affects the
northern Rockies and pushes into the western Dakotas late.
At the surface, high pressure will be most prominent from James Bay
into New England, with a ridge extending southwestward across the
central Plains and toward the Four Corners region. Low pressure will
deepen over southern SK during the day and into central MB
overnight, with a rather dry cold front pushing east across MT.
To the south, mid to occasional upper 60s F dewpoints will stretch
from southern AL across GA and into the Mid Atlantic, with mid 70s F
over the FL Peninsula. Little focus will exist for storms across
this relatively moist zone, but an uncapped air mass and heating may
yield widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms over FL and perhaps
ahead of the upper low from OH into WV.
Elsewhere, isolated high-based thunderstorms may occur near the
Wasatch Range, where lapse rates will be steep through a deep layer
and with little overall CAPE or shear.
...FL...
The greatest probability of general thunderstorms will be over FL,
as the very moist air mass heats. Weak surface convergence may
develop over central parts of the Peninsula, with chances maximized
through the Cape Canaveral area. Forecast soundings indicate warm
temperatures aloft and weak flow. Given up to around 2500 J/kg
MLCAPE by late afternoon and ample PWAT over 2.00", gusty outflow
may occur.
..Jewell/Halbert.. 09/29/2024
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