Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible
into the afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, in
association with Tropical Cyclone Helene.
...Carolinas/Virginia...
Helene is forecast by NHC to weaken into a tropical storm by the
start of the forecast period. Continued weakening and eventual
evolution into a post-tropical cyclone is forecast by later tonight,
as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level low over the Mid
South and curls northwestward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated
low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume
(with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints) in the eastern semicircle of the
cyclone, will be strongest at the start of the period and
substantially weaken during the afternoon.
One or more bands of relatively low-topped supercells may be ongoing
at the start of the period across parts of the Carolinas,
immediately in advance of an increasingly pronounced midlevel dry
slot. Low-level shear/SRH will remain quite strong in the morning,
and the greatest relative tornado threat is still expected early in
the period from the Pee Dee region of SC into the NC Coastal Plain.
Convective bands will move northward into the afternoon, with some
tornado potential spreading across parts of southern and central
Virginia. Weakening low-level flow/shear and increasing influence of
the midlevel dry slot should result in decreasing tornado potential
by late afternoon into the evening.
..Dean/Barnes.. 09/27/2024
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