Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the
Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into
northeast Georgia.
...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Weak/elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning from parts of
northern IL into Lower MI should continue to gradually weaken. In
their wake, moderate instability should develop along and ahead of a
cold front that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes region
southwestward to the southern Plains by this afternoon. This front
should make continued slow east-southeastward progress across these
regions through the period as an upper trough moves eastward over
Ontario, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Stronger mid-level winds
associated with this feature will generally remain confined to
Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly
low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this
afternoon.
Even though low-level convergence along the front should remain
fairly weak, expectations are for at least scattered thunderstorms
to develop along much of its length from eastern Lower MI to the mid
MS Valley and southern Plains. The combination of moderate
instability with modest deep-layer shear should promote some
convective organization, with loosely organized multicells/clusters
likely becoming the dominant thunderstorm mode. Steepened low-level
lapse rates with daytime hearing should encourage occasional strong
to damaging winds, with slightly stronger low/mid-level flow perhaps
supporting a relatively greater threat ahead of the front in eastern
Lower MI. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores.
Convection should weaken with time this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.
...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic...
Upper ridging will persist over the Southeast today. Very weak
low/mid-level flow is expected to limit overall thunderstorm
organization. Still, moderate instability should be present this
afternoon as daytime heating occurs along and south of a stalled
front over southern VA and northern NC. Even though deep-layer shear
will remain negligible, pulse-type thunderstorms that develop in
this moderately unstable and high precipitable water environment
could produce isolated strong to damaging downburst winds this
afternoon.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/30/2024
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