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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS WEATHER

Sunday, August 18, 2024

SPC Aug 18, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC TO THE DEEP SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic States
to the Deep South from mid-afternoon to early evening on Sunday.

...Middle Atlantic to Deep South...

Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough will shift east today with a
19/00z position forecast along the spine of the Appalachians. Modest
500mb flow should extend within the base of the trough into the
Middle Atlantic. This flow regime will aid the organizational
potential of convection that evolves ahead of the primary synoptic
front. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low may develop
over northern VA/MD by late afternoon and this feature should track
into NJ during the overnight hours. While deep-layer flow is not
forecast to be exceptionally strong, 0-6km bulk shear will exceed
30kt within a warm-advection zone. Forecast soundings favor storm
rotation and a few supercells may ultimately evolve across this
region. In addition to damaging wind threat, some risk for hail and
perhaps a brief tornado can be expected.

Trailing front across the Deep South will not be particularly
convergent as it surges into GA-AL-MS. Pre-frontal boundary layer
will be adequately buoyant for robust updrafts and any storms that
evolve ahead of the wind shift will do so within an environment that
favors some organization. Convection will propagate southeast toward
the Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow deepens with trough passage.

...Rockies/Central Plains...

Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough topping
the Rockies ridge over western WY at this time. This feature will
track southeast across the central Plains this afternoon as a 500mb
speed max translates into the lower MO Valley. LLJ will respond to
this feature which should contribute to an extensive zone of
elevated convection early in the period. This activity will
propagate southeast along a sharp corridor of warm advection into
eastern KS, then into the lower MS Valley during the overnight
hours. Have increased severe probabilities to account for this
evolution. Primary concern is damaging winds.

...Interior West...

Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms will once again develop
across western UT and track north-northeast along the
western/northern periphery of the dominant anticyclone. Gusty winds
are possible with this diurnally enhanced activity.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/18/2024


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