Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST....
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large
hail, are expected today in parts of the central and southern
Plains. A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper
Texas Coast as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the coast this
evening and makes landfall later tonight.
...Central and Southern Plains...
A shortwave trough, embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough,
will move southeastward into the central U.S. today. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Early
in the day, thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the vicinity
of the front across eastern Colorado. Other storms appear likely to
develop ahead of the front over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. In the
wake of the eastern most cluster, strong surface heating will enable
a large area of moderate instability to develop by afternoon from
the Texas Panhandle eastward into south-central Oklahoma. As the
front moves southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon,
thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop from the Texas Panhandle
eastward into western and central Oklahoma. MCS development will
likely take place as the a low-level jet strengthens across the
southern Plains during the early to mid evening.
Within the moist and unstable airmass, surface dewpoints will likely
be in the mid to upper 60s F, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates
reaching the 7 to 8 C/km range, suggesting thermodynamics will be
favorable for isolated large hail. The hail threat should be
concentrated in the late afternoon near and after the peak in
instability. A potential for severe wind gusts should also develop
in the late afternoon. Severe wind gusts could become the
predominant severe threat, especially if a well-developed line
segment can become organized. This threat could continue into the
late evening, associated with the stronger cells within the MCS.
...Middle to Upper Texas Coast...
Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane today in the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico, per NHC forecast. As the center of
Beryl approaches the middle Texas Coast this evening, bands of heavy
rainfall appear likely begin to overspread parts of the Texas
Coastal Plain. In response to the approaching cyclone, low-level
shear will steadily increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast.
This will likely result in a tornado threat this evening into
tonight, with semi-discrete rotating cells that develop with the
rainbands of Beryl. The greatest tornado threat should develop to
the north and east of the center of Beryl as it approaches the coast
tonight.
..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/07/2024
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