Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
northern to central High Plains and from the Ozarks to Lower Ohio
Valley, mainly from late afternoon to mid-evening. The most
favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant
severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies will dig
southeast across the northern Rockies before reaching the
north-central High Plains by early Thursday. As this occurs, a lee
surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. A convectively
modified cold front will shift east-southeast into the Lower Great
Lakes to the Ozarks. This front will remain quasi-stationary into
the southern TX Panhandle, with the most prominent temperature
gradient from here through northern OK owing to pronounced
differential heating across OK to KS.
...Central to northern High Plains...
To the north of the southern Great Plains baroclinic zone,
predominantly southeasterly low-level flow will attempt to advect
richer moisture from southern/eastern KS. However, most 00Z models
suggest increasing widespread convection from the TX/OK Panhandle
into KS this morning amid low-level warm theta-e advection. This
overturning will likely slow the northwestward moisture return. In
addition, pervasive cloudiness will limit boundary-layer
destabilization over the lower plains. These factors yield a
probable confined plume of appreciable buoyancy and uncertainty over
the amplitude of the peak buoyancy over the central High Plains.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the lee trough
towards late afternoon, seemingly most probable from northeast CO to
south of the Black Hills. An additional area/round of storms should
also form farther northwest into northeast WY, ahead of the
mid-level DCVA attendant to the approaching shortwave trough.
Relatively modest low-level flow in conjunction with moderate to
strong speed shear above 700 mb will yield moderate hodograph
elongation. This should support widely spaced supercells capable of
large to very large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. Broken
upscale growth with amalgamating convective outflows will probably
occur during the early to mid-evening, which should yield a threat
for isolated wind gusts of 70-80 mph. With potential for convection
to spread relatively quickly into a cooler downstream boundary
layer, confidence is too low to warrant a level 3-ENH threat this
cycle.
...Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the weaker portion of
the frontal zone during the latter half of the afternoon, aided in
part by remnant MCVs from ongoing/forecast convection this morning.
Along the fringe of modest mid-level southwesterlies, roughly
parallel to the weak front, multicell clustering is anticipated. A
threat for strong to localized severe gusts may be sufficient for
potentially scattered wind damage.
..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/03/2024
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