LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
central and northern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also
across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the day.
...Northern/central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A broad upper trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will again be
in place across parts of the northern Rockies into the
central/northern Plains today. Steep midlevel lapse rates and strong
heating will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy by
afternoon across parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska. As MLCINH
decreases through the afternoon, most guidance suggests at least
widely scattered storm development near a surface trough from the
western Dakotas into northwest NE.
Effective shear of 35-45 kt will support some threat for supercells,
with an attendant threat of large hail (possibly in excess of 2
inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts. With time, evolution
into one or more outflow driven clusters will be possible, with an
increasing threat of damaging/severe gusts (potentially in excess of
75 mph). Longevity for any of these potential clusters into late
tonight is uncertain, but some threat for damaging/locally severe
gusts could spread into parts of IA and southern MN before a more
definitive weakening trend occurs.
...Parts of the OH/MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast...
An MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from far
eastern MO into IL. While the organization and severity of this
system during the morning is uncertain, at least isolated damaging
gusts could spread southeastward into parts of the OH/TN Valley
through midday. In the wake of morning convection, moderate westerly
low-level flow will help to modify the remnant outflow, with
redevelopment possible by late afternoon into the evening within a
warm-advection regime.
Most guidance suggests a tendency toward clustering and possible MCS
redevelopment by early evening, with a renewed threat for damaging
wind. A couple supercells could also evolve within the modifying
outflow regime, with an attendant threat for isolated hail and a
tornado or two. A Slight Risk has been added from southern IL/IN
into central KY, where confidence is currently greatest in some
severe threat from both the morning convection and later
redevelopment. Some adjustments will likely be needed based on the
evolution of early-day convection.
Farther southeast, some threat for a few strong storms with isolated
damaging-wind potential appears evident from the TN Valley into
parts of GA and the Carolinas, within a modest northwesterly flow
regime.
...Northern Mid Atlantic vicinity...
As a midlevel cyclone moves northward across New England through the
day today, strengthening northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
overspread parts of the Mid Atlantic. A few strong storms could
develop within this regime during the afternoon, with moderate
buoyancy and effective shear of 30-35 kt supporting some potential
for isolated damaging gusts and hail.
..Dean/Weinman.. 07/29/2024
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MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).
Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
CONVECTIVE | TORNADO | WIND | HAIL
Monday, July 29, 2024
SPC Jul 29, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)