Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears low on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
The large-scale upper-level pattern will change little on Tuesday,
with a pronounced anticyclone over much of the West, and a trough
from the Great Lakes northeast into eastern Canada. A weak surface
front will extend from near the Delmarva Peninsula southwest into
central TX, and serve as a focus for more concentrated showers and
thunderstorms. Farther north, another weak/slow-moving front will
extend from the Great Lakes into the Dakotas.
Although no severe probabilities are introduced with this outlook,
some localized severe potential is possible, and highlighted below.
...Mid-Atlantic/southeast...
The air mass over much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic states near
and south of the front Tuesday will remain very moist with PW values
in excess of 2 inches, contributing to moderate MLCAPE by afternoon.
Although a modest increase in mid-level flow is forecast from the
southern Appalachians northeast across the mid-Atlantic, low-level
flow will remain weak. Additionally, the lack of a well-defined
impulse embedded within the mid-level flow suggests that any severe
risk, likely in the form of strong/damaging gusts, should remain
localized in nature.
...Midwest...
Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front
from southern WI across IA and southern MN Tuesday afternoon, with
the potential for multiple rounds of storms in some locations.
Moderate buoyancy should be in place near the front, however
deep-layer shear should generally remain at or below 25 kts for much
of the day. Some risk for hail and gusty winds will exist with any
stronger storm, but overall confidence in introducing a severe risk
area remains low.
...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of
Arizona again Tuesday, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow
steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Despite very
hot temperatures and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer, overall
confidence that storms will cluster and produce more than localized
strong/damaging gusts is too low to introduce a severe risk area.
..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/23/2024
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