Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with a risk for damaging winds and large hail,
will be possible Friday from western and central South Dakota south
into the northern Texas Panhandle.
...Synopsis...
A notable shortwave trough located along the international
border/north-central MT at 06z will move southeast across the
northern/central Plains on Friday. An expansive upper-level
anticyclone will remain in place over much of the southwestern U.S.,
while a positive-tilt upper trough over the Northeast lifts
northward into the Canadian Maritime Provinces.
...Central U.S....
One or two small clusters of thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12z
Friday in a weak warm-advection regime over the Dakotas. More
intense development is expected, possibly by early/mid afternoon, in
the vicinity of a surface trough across southwest South
Dakota/northern Nebraska as ascent with the upper-level trough moves
southeast. Additional thunderstorm development is also expected near
a weak surface low and trough across northeast Colorado/southwest
Nebraska during the late afternoon, with storms moving
south/southeast across western Kansas during the evening.
Dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s, combined with daytime heating
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, should yield moderate to strong
buoyancy by mid afternoon. Around 40 kts of northwest deep-layer
shear will support organized storm structures that should merge into
clusters and bowing segments with time across western/central
Nebraska, western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Damaging winds should
be the primary threat given the well-mixed boundary layer and
eventual clustering/bowing of storms. Large hail will also be
possible with the strongest updrafts, especially where supercell
structures with mid-level rotation can develop.
Some hi-res guidance suggests the potential for greater coverage of
severe winds, including significant-severe wind potential, over
portions of southern South Dakota and western/central Nebraska.
Higher wind probabilities/introduction of a sig-severe wind area may
be needed in later outlooks if confidence in this scenario
increases.
..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/19/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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