Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region
beginning mid afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the
primary threats.
...Central Plains...
The early morning water vapor imagery loop shows a broad upper ridge
across the southwest US, with a shortwave trough topping the ridge
over CO. This feature will emerge into the high Plains by early
afternoon. Southerly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture
rapidly northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southwest KS. A few
hours of sunshine/mixing should result in a rapid jump of surface
dewpoints into much of KS/NE, where strong heating will occur. This
should yield a corridor of moderate MLCAPE by mid-afternoon
(1500-2500 J/kg). Present indications are that intense
thunderstorms will form over north-central NE by mid-afternoon in a
strongly sheared environment. These supercell storms will pose a
risk of all hazards for a few hours, tracking southeastward and
organizing into a fast-moving MCS. As the storms track into eastern
NE/KS and western IA/MO during the evening, model guidance suggests
the potential for rather widespread damaging winds and hail. This
activity is expected to weaken overnight as it tracks into southeast
KS and southern MO. Given the increasing confidence of this
scenario and the potential for a more widespread severe event, have
upgraded to ENH.
...Southwest KS and TX/OK Panhandles...
A low-level convergence/dryline boundary is expected to become
established late this afternoon from northeast NM into parts of the
TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Temperatures are expected to
rise into the 90s or low 100s in this area, where scattered
high-based afternoon thunderstorms will develop. A deeply mixed
boundary-layer, strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, and
sufficient CAPE will result in a few severe storms through the early
evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern,
although some hail is also possible.
...Great Basin...
A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over central CA moving
eastward. Lift associated with this trough, coupled with increasing
mid-level moisture across the Great Basin depicted in water vapor
imagery, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over
central/eastern NV. This activity will track eastward into parts of
UT during the peak heating period. Forecast soundings show very
steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for damaging
wind gusts in the more intense storms.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2024
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