Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains
possible this evening across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the
Southwest, and parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper
Midwest.
...01Z Update...
Downstream of broad, weak mid/upper troughing, widely scattered
strong to severe thunderstorm activity persists across the Rockies,
adjacent portions of the Southwest and Great Plains, with additional
widely scattered activity focused near the northern periphery of
prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Mid South. While
convection across most areas already appears in the process of
slowly waning, an evolving cluster of storms across parts of central
into northeastern Nebraska could still strengthen and organize
further this evening into the overnight hours, accompanied by
increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. The
environment across the Missouri Valley, ahead of it, remains
potentially unstable, with CAPE on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg, as
a belt of 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly to westerly flow in the
850-500 mb layer noses northeast of the Kansas/Nebraska border
toward the Upper Midwest.
..Kerr.. 06/22/2024
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