Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN CO
INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE/KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN MD INTO
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph
will be possible from mid afternoon through the evening along the
Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms
with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible
across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening.
...CO/KS/NE into the northern High Plains/northern Rockies...
A mid/upper-level low over the Southwest is expected to eject
northeastward as a shortwave trough later today, reaching the
central/southern High Plains by late afternoon into the evening. In
advance of this shortwave, an outflow-reinforced front may move
slowly northward through the day. Low-level easterly flow will
maintain a corridor of relatively rich low-level moisture along and
north of the front, with strong heating/mixing expected south of the
front, and also in closer proximity to the higher terrain.
Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected by
mid/late afternoon across parts of CO/NM, as the shortwave trough
approaches the region. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable
deep-layer shear will support a hail threat with initial discrete
storm development, along with some potential for a brief tornado or
two. A tendency toward more of a cluster mode is expected with time,
as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely
scattered gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas
where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized
MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary,
which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward
across a larger portion of the central Plains later tonight.
Farther north, moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible
near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains,
with modest instability extending westward across parts of the
northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient
deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of
producing isolated hail and strong/severe gusts.
...PA/OH into the Mid Atlantic and New England...
A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid Atlantic and New
England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will
develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm
development expected from PA into New England, and more isolated
development possible farther south into parts of the central
Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will
support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or
marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of
locally damaging wind and hail.
The Slight Risk has been expanded into parts of southern ME and also
across a larger portion of PA, based on latest guidance regarding
greater storm coverage within a somewhat favorable environment.
Rather strong deep-layer shear will extend westward into parts of
Ohio, but storm coverage remains more uncertain into that area.
..Dean/Thornton.. 06/14/2024
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