Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to
develop across the central and southern High Plains region,
including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This
activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into
the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail,
and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks.
...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas...
Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the
primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian
border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at
low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern
Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple
thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity
originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies,
then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley
where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this
evolution is once again expected later today as strong
boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across
the central High Plains.
Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast
across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these
complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity
early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would
even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts
could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early
afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely
threat.
Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once
again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher
terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West
TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection
evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor
supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An
MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande
Valley later in the evening.
Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across
the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in
convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO.
Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by
early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this
portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in
excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024
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