Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and occasional very large
hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected across
southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon.
Another area of significant severe weather potential will develop
across west Texas this afternoon and evening.
...Southeast TX/Western LA...
A large nocturnal MCS that continues to affect east TX has
dramatically changed the overall forecast of severe storms for later
today. The leading edge of the MCS will affect southeast TX and
southwest LA this afternoon, in a very moist and extremely unstable
environment. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercell and
bowing structures capable of damaging winds and very large hail
until early evening when the primary activity moves offshore.
...West TX...
The outflow boundary from the aforementioned MCS has surged westward
across TX. A zone of strong heating and locally higher surface
dewpoints on the north side of the boundary is expected to result in
rapid thunderstorm development by late afternoon. These storms will
be in a favorably sheared environment for intense supercells capable
of all severe hazards. Activity will persist through much of the
evening and spread into west-central TX.
...WI/IL/IN...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop ahead of a shortwave
trough over southeast MN. A few of the storms may produce locally
gusty winds and hail, but the overall severe threat is expected to
remain marginal.
...Outer Banks of NC...
A weak surface boundary currently parallels the NC coast, with a
very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place. Isolated
afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this boundary, with a
risk of locally damaging winds or hail in the most intense storms.
...ME...
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected to affect central and
eastern ME as a shortwave trough moves across the area. Gusty winds
and hail will be possible in the strongest cells.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/28/2024
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